Called “New Lens Scenarios”, the Shell study focuses on an era of volatility and transition and areas that are fundamental to the development of energy and environmental systems in the 21st century, which include the connection between energy, water and food systems and the impact of growing global urbanization.
These areas are of particular relevance to the UAE where energy and water demand continues to grow due to rapid population growth and urbanization and the expansion of energy intensive industries, which are key to fulfilling the UAE Economic Vision 2030.
These areas, which are central to a sustainable energy future, were the central focus of the engagements and dialogue with senior officials from ADNOC in Abu Dhabi.
“The scenarios are designed to support our partners in the public and private sectors in visualizing the major impact the choices they make today have on determining the energy system of the future,” said Wim Thomas, Shell Chief Energy Advisor.
“With the global energy system set to grow rapidly, these scenarios highlight the need for business and government to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency,” added Thomas on the sidelines of his engagement with ADNOC officials in Abu Dhabi.
Shell recently released two new scenarios that explore possible ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different implications for society and the world’s energy system.
Called Mountains and Oceans, Shell’s scenarios explore two plausible future pathways for society. Each scenario dives into the implications for the pace of global economic development, the types of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions.
One scenario sees cleaner-burning natural gas becoming the most important energy source globally by the 2030s and early action to limit carbon dioxide emissions by application of CCS. The other sees solar becoming the top source by about 2070, but with slower action to address the threat of climate change.
In the various meetings in Abu Dhabi, participants discussed the merits of both scenarios as both the increased use of natural gas and renewable energy are outlined as priority in the national vision to build a sustainable and diversiﬁed, high value-added economy by 2030.
“Sustainability is key for Shell both in terms of business growth strategy and in terms of the environmental and socio-economic climate in which it operates.
“We also know that it is key for the UAE to ensure a sustainable future for its citizens. We are convinced it is possible with the right combination of policy, technology and commitment from governments, industry and society in the UAE to meet the energy challenge together,” concluded Thomas.
Shell has a 40-year history of using scenario planning to explore possible future landscapes and aid strategic decision-making. Over time, the Shell Scenarios have gained a global following among governments, academia and other businesses. They have helped deepen understanding of how the world might appear decades ahead.
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