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  • ein

    40% probability of a small (3-5%) AED reval in 2007

    As we head towards the GCC central bank governors meeting next week (now scheduled for the 4-5th of April in Medina), speculation of currency revaluations are likely to remain rife. We have long argued that …

    Read full article » United Arab Emirates: Monday, March 26 - 2007 @ 09:06
  • ein

    Outlook 2007: From Great to Good

    In short, the region’s performance is expected to go from Great in 2003-2006 to Good in 2007. This should not, however, bring on the doomsayers. The deceleration in growth is due to both much higher …

    Read full article » : Wednesday, January 17 - 2007 @ 12:52
  • ein

    Saudi Arabia: Reform continues

    Saudi Arabia is set to realise another strong economic performance in 2006. The economy witnessed buoyant growth, with nominal GDP growth expanding by 20.3% y/y in H1 2006 and we are forecasting real GDP growth …

    Read full article » : Wednesday, December 13 - 2006 @ 09:53
  • ein

    Iran: Troubling times ahead for the economy

    While the international community has focused on Iran’s nuclear program, the economy has continued to suffer from poor macroeconomic management. Although the overall economy is being supported by high oil prices, growth is far short …

    Read full article » : Wednesday, December 13 - 2006 @ 09:42
  • ein

    What if this time isn’t different?

    First, let us lead off, as we did in May, with the experience of the 1980s for the region. The headlines are that the whole region contracted almost 18% in nominal USD terms, while the …

    Read full article » : Wednesday, December 13 - 2006 @ 09:24
  • ein

    Syria – Some positive signs amidst daunting challenges

    There have been some positive developments in Syria. The economy is benefiting from strong oil prices and the non-oil sector is performing strongly. Furthermore, the piecemeal reform program has accelerated over the last year. However, …

    Read full article » : Monday, November 13 - 2006 @ 13:00
  • ein

    Qatar – The boom continues

    Strong economic performance continues
    Qatar’s economic performance remains stellar, supported by strong hydrocarbon prices and prudent government policies. Importantly, these factors are promoting the long-term resilience of the economy. After strong growth over the last …

    Read full article » : Monday, November 13 - 2006 @ 12:27
  • ein

    Egypt – External soars

    Strong external performance
    Egypt’s external performance remains strong despite the current account surplus falling to 1.6% of GDP in FY2005/06 (July 2005-Jun 2006), from 3.1% in the previous year. This figure masks the robust performance …

    Read full article » : Monday, November 13 - 2006 @ 12:12
  • ein

    Dubai Property: The brow of the hill

    Concerns about property bubbles abound around the world. Dubai is no exception. In recent years, we have seen a dramatic price appreciation. By the end of 2005, we estimate that property prices had doubled in …

    Read full article » United Arab Emirates: Monday, November 06 - 2006 @ 08:36
  • ein

    Lebanon: Rebuilding all over again

    A fragile truce

    At the time of writing, the UN-brokered ceasefire, which ended the 33-day conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on 14 August, continued to hold. However, the ceasefire remains fragile. Israel has indicated it is …

    Read full article » : Sunday, September 17 - 2006 @ 13:36






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