Oman population forecast to grow by 2.4 million by 2040

August 28, 2014 4:23 pm

The National Centre for Statistics and Information (NCSI) has issued a new report under the title ‘Population Projection in Sultanate of Oman 2015-2040’.

According to the ‘Pan Arab Project for Family Health 2009’ by the Population Reference Bureau, ‘Population Projection’ is an estimate of changes in the future population based on field data gathering where pre-existing data may be made to predict fertility, deaths and migration. Predictions on the size and specifics of the future population are used by researchers, economists and official authorities as a key variable for future strategic planning, including issues related to workforce, housing, education, healthcare, etc.

Nation-wide population forecasts (based on fertility rates estimate by 2040) show that the total population of the Sultanate is set to increase by 2.4 million in the period 2015–2040. The average age for Omanis in 2040 is expected to be 27, while the increase in population by gender is forecast to grow by 69% for males and 72% for females over the same period.

Meanwhile, fertility forecasts estimate that between 25-30% of the population in 2040 will comprise of children below 15 years old, while between 8-11% of the total local population will be under 5 years old. While the age group between 15-29 is expected to comprise 27% in 2040, 3% lower than the 2015 forecast figure. The percentage of the population between 15-64 years of age will be account for between 64-69% of the total population.

The NCSI report also reveals that 45% of Omani women will be of fertile age in 2040. The number of dependents in 2040 is forecast to range between 45-56 for every 100 persons within the employment age.

The report indicates that the Muscat population is forecast to rise by 313,000 by 2040, with 75.6% of those will be aged between 25 and 64 years of age. The number of people residing in Muscat aged below 30 years old is expected to decrease by 13% in 2040.

Meanwhile, Musandam will witness the lowest population increase nationwide with only 17,000 added to the population numbers by 2040. Additionally, 41% of all people aged between 15-29 will be residing in Muscat or Al Batina North by 2040. The report also noted that Muscat, Al Batina North and South, and Al Sharqiya North together will account for 66% of the age group below 5 years old in 2040.